The stock market continues its upward trajectory during President Trump's second term, albeit with some volatility. Shifting trade policies and renewed tariff negotiations initially triggered market jitters. Geopolitical tensions, particularly those involving Iran, have added another layer of uncertainty.
Despite these headwinds, the S&P 500 has demonstrated resilience. Since the November 2024 election, the S&P 500's total return has climbed more than 25% as of April 20, 2026. In 2025, the S&P 500 generated a total return of 16.39%. Year-to-date through April 20, 2026, the S&P 500 is up 4.23%. This performance closely mirrors the gains seen during the same period of Trump's first term.
Strong corporate earnings appear to be a key factor supporting the market. S&P 500 companies increased fourth-quarter 2025 revenue by 9.2% and earnings by 13.4%. Current first-quarter expectations point to continued revenue growth of 9.6% and earnings growth of 13.0%. Investors have responded positively to tax relief and Federal Reserve rate cuts.
However, sector performance has varied. While technology stocks led gains in Trump's first term, communication services have outperformed in his second term. Healthcare, financials, and consumer discretionary sectors have lagged compared to their performance during Trump's first term. Investors are closely watching policy developments, economic signals, and geopolitical events to gauge future market direction.
