Bitcoin (BTC) is at a critical juncture, with one analyst suggesting that the cryptocurrency's final correction before the next bull market could be just around the corner. According to CryptoRank, market observer Ali Martinez noted that Bitcoin's past cycles show a crossover between the 50 and 200 Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) has historically marked the "absolute bottom" of major cycles since 2014.
This crossover on the three-day chart has consistently signaled the start of a "final washout" before the next bull market begins. Looking back at 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin had already fallen by 50%-72% from its cycle peaks when these SMAs crossed. Following the crossover, the cryptocurrency continued its correction for another 23-33 days, retracing an additional 45%-52% before finding a bottom. As of March 31, 2026, the crossover occurred on February 27, with the market already down 52% from its October 2025 peak. This puts the market about 30 days into a historically significant "final washout" signal. The analyst forecasts a final accumulation window within 3–6 days, with potential accumulation zones around $40,000 and $30,000.
However, technical analysis indicates a bearish structure. Bitcoin has formed a bearish flag after trading between $62,000 and $74,000 for about two months. After closing near $66,000 and retesting the $67,000-$68,000 range, it retraced over 10% to $65,000, breaking the flag's lower boundary. This increases the risk of a second leg down, with Fibonacci levels potentially pointing to a bottom below $57,000.
While elevated short-term downside risk exists, these signals have historically marked multi-month bottoms and long-term accumulation opportunities. Investors should closely monitor Bitcoin's price action and consider their risk tolerance as the market potentially enters this final phase of correction.
